(posted 12:12 Tuesday 04 February 2025 ACDT)
The Cost of a 51% Attack on Dogecoin (parody)
Why Do They Recommend 6 Confirmations for Dogecoin Transactions?
The recommendation for six confirmations in Dogecoin (and many other cryptocurrencies) is a security measure to ensure that a transaction is irreversible and secure from blockchain reorganization attacks. Here’s what happens during those six confirmations:
1. Transaction Broadcast
- When you send a Dogecoin transaction, it is first broadcast to the network.
- Miners pick it up and attempt to include it in the next block.
2. First Confirmation (Mined in a Block)
- The transaction gets included in a newly mined block.
- At this point, the transaction has one confirmation, meaning it is officially recorded on the blockchain.
- However, this block could still be replaced if another miner finds a competing block with a longer valid chain.
3-6 Confirmations (Further Blocks Built on Top)
- Each additional block added to the chain after the block containing your transaction increases security.
- A deeper transaction (buried under more blocks) is less likely to be reversed due to the cost of performing a 51% attack (reorganizing the chain).
Why Six Confirmations?
- Dogecoin has a 1-minute block time, so six confirmations typically take about 6 minutes.
- The reason for waiting for six blocks is to guard against blockchain reorganizations (where an attacker could try to rewrite history by mining an alternate chain).
- By the time six blocks have been added, an attacker would need significant computational power (over 51% of total network hash rate) to rewrite those blocks.
How Many Pentium Computers Would I Need to Take 51% of the Network?
Current Dogecoin Network Hashrate
- Dogecoin’s network hashrate is ~1.99 PH/s (peta hashes per second).
- 51% of 1.99 PH/s = 1.015 PH/s.
Hashrate of a Pentium CPU
- Pentium Gold G5400 CPU @ 3.70GHz: ~1,249 H/s (hashes per second).
Number of CPUs Needed
- 1 PH/s = 1,000,000,000,000 H/s
- 1.015 PH/s = 1,015,000,000,000 H/s
- Required CPUs: 1,015,000,000,000 ÷ 1,249 ≈ 812,650,520 CPUs
Physical Space Required
Each CPU setup (including cooling, PSU, and networking) requires ~0.2 m².
- Total Space Needed: 812,650,520 × 0.2 m² = 162,530,104 m²
- Converted to acres: 40,168 acres (~63 square miles)
- Comparable to: 1.5× San Francisco or Disney World
Power Consumption & Costs
- Each Pentium CPU setup consumes ~150W
- Total Power Consumption: 812,650,520 × 150W = 121.9 GW
- Electricity Costs (@$0.10/kWh):
- Daily: $292.5 million
- Yearly: $107 billion
Using ASIC Miners Instead
Instead of CPUs, let’s use Bitmain Antminer L9 (16 GH/s, 3,360W).
- ASIC Miners Needed: 63,438 units
- Total Power Consumption: 213.17 MW
- Physical Space Required: ~1.57 acres
- Electricity Cost: $186.7 million/year
- Hardware Cost: $634.38 million
Comparison (Pentium vs. ASICs)
| Factor | Pentium CPUs | ASIC Miners (L9) |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Units | 812.6 million | 63,438 |
| Power Consumption | 121.9 GW | 213.17 MW |
| Land Required | 40,168 acres | 1.57 acres |
| Electricity Cost | $107 billion/year | $186.7 million/year |
| Hardware Cost | Not Calculated | $634.38 million |
How Many Girl Scout Cookies Would We Need to Sell?
Total Cost to Launch Attack: $921.08 million
- Profit per box: $4.00
- Boxes Needed: 230 million boxes
- Annual Girl Scout Sales: ~60 million boxes
- We’d need 3+ years of total cookie sales
Final Thoughts
- Attacking Dogecoin is nearly impossible.
- You’d need a land area larger than Disneyland for Pentium CPUs.
- Even with ASICs, it’s a multi-billion dollar effort.
- Unless you can mobilize every Girl Scout in America for years, it’s not happening! 😂
Notes
- This analysis was done by ChatGPT —I just asked the questions!
- All calculations and estimates were handled by AI.
- This was a fun exercise in understanding crypto security, mining costs, and logistics.